The main event of yesterday was the meeting of the Board of Directors on the key rate. No one doubted that the bet would be left unchanged. And so it happened. However, the regulator's rhetoric was unexpectedly harsh, although we expected it to soften somewhat. Now the Bank of Russia predicts the level of the average interest rate for the current year in the range of 15-16% per annum. This means that in the best case scenario, we can enter the new year 2025 with a rate of 13%. At the same time, it is possible that the rate reduction will begin only next year.
In such circumstances, buying shares for dividends on a broad front does not make much sense, since bonds of high-class issuers will give more with less risk. However, the approach of cut-off registers for dividends will still support the stock market. But for most issuers, it is still not worth going out to receive payments.
The exception to this is the BEAC. Yesterday, the bank reported an 11.3% increase in net profit under IFRS for the first quarter. So far, we predict that the head of the Savings Bank, German Gref, will keep the promise made at the end of last year to increase profits this year. The shares of Sberbank reacted yesterday with a growth of one third of a percent to the positive reports. The weak reaction was caused both by the rhetoric of the Central Bank and the approach of the holidays, during which many investors will not turn on trading terminals.
Aeroplane increased sales in the first quarter by 75%. The result is very good, but we expect the situation in the development to worsen due to the imminent curtailment of a number of preferential mortgage programs and a drop in market mortgages.
The Positive Group reported an increase in losses for the first quarter by almost 3 times. At the same time, revenue increased by 48%, and shipments increased by 49%. The company itself states that "the results of the first quarter exceed the expectations of management." In principle, the loss for growth companies, to which the "Positive" refers, is not critical. The prospects for the shares of such companies are better assessed by revenue dynamics.
Yesterday, the shares of Positiva rose by 1.5% and are trading near the resistance of 2000 rubles. It should not be confusing that since the beginning of the year, the "Positive" has already grown by 49% - growth companies, especially those that are not very liquid, may well demonstrate a multiple increase in capitalization over the year.
The leaders of the decline were Fix Price securities (-3.6%) based on information that in the first quarter, which was good for retailers, the company's net profit collapsed by 43.8%.
The harsh rhetoric of the Central Bank gave strength to the ruble, which, paired with the dollar, broke through the not very strong support of 92 and today will try to gain a foothold lower.
We are waiting for calm trading on the stock market today without fundamental changes in the Moscow Stock Exchange Index.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
The Comments section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial board of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of publication of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For questions about the placement of information in this section, you can contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.
