The stock market rebound should not be used to build up longs yet

Alexey Antonov, ALOR BROKER 16 March 2023 10:54

The Russian stock market started yesterday with an attempt to continue growth, but quickly rolled down due to the deterioration of the external background. The problems of the Swiss bank Credit Suisse, which has been in a sad state in recent months, have come to the agenda of world markets. Yesterday, the bank's shares were falling by a little over 30 percent at the moment. The Swiss Central Bank said that Credit Suisse is alive and will receive additional liquidity if necessary, which somewhat brought down the panic. But there is no guarantee that a new wave of flight from risky assets will not happen today or tomorrow.

The Russian stock market has nothing to do with the problems of the Western banking sector, but the stock market panic leads to the sale of commodity futures, which is already sensitive for us.

So, oil fell by almost 5% yesterday, breaking through the important support of $76 per barrel. With the next round of tension, oil may well descend to the next support of $68. The decline in oil did not cause an active dumping of Russian oil securities, but at such a price for their products, the shares of companies in the sector will not be able to show dynamics ahead of the market.

This morning, oil bounces by a percentage and costs $74.5 per barrel. If the quotes manage to go above $76, then the breakdown will be considered false, and the technical picture for oil will improve dramatically. But so far, the implementation of such a scenario is not obvious.

Taking into account the rise in the price of oil and American futures, we are waiting for the opening of trading on the Russian stock market with growth.

Among the significant events of the environment, it is worth noting the reporting of TCS Group (the parent company of the Tinkoff Group). The issuer's profit for the year fell by 3 times, and more than half of it was earned in the last quarter of the year. We estimate the result as good, taking into account the fact that the profit of the Savings Bank decreased by 4.4 times last year.
TCS receipts closed the day down by 1.9%, performing much weaker than other banks. Now the paper is trading on strong support with a growth potential of just over 10%. Despite the fact that the company's management did not say anything intelligible about dividends, the paper can be carefully selected.
In particular, the paper can start catching up with the Beac at any moment, which seems to be forming a new uptrend. Yesterday, the shares of Sberbank showed a strong result, having decreased by only 0.2% at the end of the day.

Among the worst expected were the shares of the Moscow Stock Exchange, which lost 2.1% during the day. Still, since Friday, when it became known about the extremely stingy dividends, the paper has fallen by almost 10%. Its oversold value is high, we are waiting for a technical rebound, which should be used to reduce medium-term longs.

Gold behaved abnormally yesterday, which became more expensive with the growth of the dollar on the world market. However, the shares of Russian gold miners performed frankly weakly, having risen quite slightly relative to Tuesday's close. So far, gold quotes have not even started testing the resistance zone of $1930-$1940 per troy ounce.

Of the important events of today, it is worth paying attention to Sovcomflot, whose board of directors should make recommendations on dividends. The dividend yield of the stock may well exceed 10%. In the medium term, we look at the paper positively: the company will undoubtedly be provided with orders and will most likely continue to increase the tanker fleet.

Raspadskaya, VK and Polymetal threaten to publish reports.

The ruble also did not experience any particular shocks due to the fall in oil. The dollar-ruble pair continues to move smoothly towards a strong resistance of 76.5, from which, in the absence of shocks, we expect it to turn down.

Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER 

The "Comments" section of the AK&M news agency publishes materials submitted by Russian and foreign investment companies and banks. Their opinions may not coincide with the opinion of the editorial board of the AK&M agency. The opinions presented in the comments are expressed taking into account the situation at the time of the release of the material. The comments are for informational purposes only; they do not constitute an offer or advice on the purchase or sale of securities. For information placement in this section, you can contact the agency's editorial office by phone (499) 132-61-30 ext. 0102.