The Russian stock market may receive support from America

Alexey Antonov, ALOR BROKER 13 September 2021 11:14

Now the main attention should be focused on the American stock market. The dynamics of other stock and commodity assets will depend on it. The last 4 days of last week, America was declining. The S&P500 index closed on Friday in the support area of 4450-4480 points, which is the lower limit of the ascending channel. Recently, we have seen how all drawdowns are paid off thanks to a huge amount of financial liquidity.

Most likely, this will happen this time. However, all channels are destroyed sooner or later, and if we see a breakdown of its lower limit, then a large-scale profit-taking will begin overseas, which will provoke a drop in American indices by 5-7 percent. This option also needs to be kept in mind. In the meantime, since the morning, American futures are trading with a symbolic increase.

Aluminum has soared by more than 2%, in which the coup d'etat in Guinea, which produces about 20% of the world's bauxite, has been playing out for too long. One way or another, this will again support the quotes of Rusal. Nickel is losing more than a percent, which may slow down the emerging attempt of a rebound by Norilsk Nickel.

Gazprom has been consolidating since last Tuesday. At the same time, gas prices in Europe continued to grow, exceeding $700 per thousand cubic meters. Western media write that gas pumping through the Nord Stream 2 will begin on October 1. It's time for Gazprom to form a new short-term uptrend in order to update historical highs and move to the area of 400 rubles. By the way, such an interesting fact: in the last 11 months, the company's shares closed only in January with a symbolic decline of 0.07%.

Oil is growing by 0.5% in the morning and is trading more expensive than $ 73 dollars per barrel. There is no certainty yet that the quotes will be able to gain a foothold above this mark. We are waiting for the full recovery of production in the Gulf of Mexico, which will precipitate oil prices. But for now, expensive oil will support both the Russian stock market as a whole and the ruble.

The latter reacted with a decrease to the Central Bank's decision to raise the key rate by 0.25 p. p. both due to profit-taking "in fact" and due to the fact that many bidders were waiting for a tougher decision of the regulator. After the speech of the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, it seemed that the Central Bank would not limit itself to raising the rate to 7% per annum and could drive it even higher. This is moderately positive for the ruble, but a high rate will hinder economic growth, and it is negative for the stock market. Now dividend ideas are becoming less and less interesting. It is unlikely that an increase in the rate will be able to overcome inflation, the reasons for which lie in the rapid growth of world prices for raw materials.

In the meantime, the ruble is trading at the level of Friday's closing, just above the 73 mark, paired with the dollar. Most likely, today's trading in the dollar-ruble pair will end without fundamental changes.

Alexey Antonov, Chief Analyst at ALOR BROKER 

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