Lukoil's shares attracted a lot of attention yesterday. The opening of trading occurred with a strong gap, even slightly exceeding the amount of dividends. But already during the first 30 minutes of trading, the paper rebounded strongly and at the end of the day lost only 3.8% of its value. Thus, there are strong hopes that the stock will quickly close the dividend gap.
But does this mean that the situation will develop in a similar way after clearing dividends on other shares? We would not make such an analogy. We can expect high payments from Lukoil in the future, we do not exclude that the dividend yield of the share for the year will be at the level of the risk-free rate, which can be expected only from individual issuers.
Lukoil has about 0.8 trillion rubles, which the company planned to use to buy back its shares from foreign shareholders. If the buyout takes place, the number of shares will decrease, and the profit per share will be higher. If it does not take place, then this "pot" can be used for dividends. Therefore, it is worth thinking hard about the question of whether to go out to receive dividends, or it is better to "ride" on the pre-dividend growth, which has already been and will be for most securities, and jump out 5 days before the registry cutoff.
Due to the strong dynamics of Lukoil, the Moscow Stock Exchange Index did not even test the support of 3,400 points, and closed Tuesday with losses of only a quarter of a percent.
The shares of ferrous metallurgists looked very strong, from which we expect high profitability in general for 2024. An important Savings Account was traded better than the market. Thus, so far everything speaks about maintaining the mood of the majority of investors for growth and redemption of drawdowns. But we are not sure that this situation will last long.
As for today, the morning does not look happy. Oil is getting cheaper by half a percent, going below $ 83 per barrel, thereby starting to test this support for strength. The deterioration of the geopolitical situation and tomorrow's day off will also deter from active purchases.
There is a strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, but the downward momentum of the dollar-ruble pair is gradually subsiding. Today, we do not rule out fixing speculative profits for the pair, as a result of which the ruble may weaken slightly. However, the time to buy a dollar has not yet come.
Alexey Antonov, Head of Investment Consulting at ALOR BROKER
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