The external background on Tuesday morning can be called moderately positive. Oil prices are stable after rising the day before, and the mood on global stock markets is optimistic.
Trading on the US stock exchanges yesterday ended with an increase in the three main indexes by 0.5-1.2%, led by the high-tech Nasdaq. The market was aiming for the area of annual peaks and continued to live with expectations of easing the Fed's policy later this year, the possibility of which is still not denied by representatives of the regulator, who nevertheless emphasize the current stability of inflation.
Futures for the S&P 500 index hardly change positions in the morning. The day before, the indicator was aiming at the area of 5230 points (the upper Bollinger band of the daily chart), which may have a reassessment of current short- and medium-term positions.
Trading in Europe ended the day before with an increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index by 0.7%. The market was aiming for the psychologically important 5,000 point mark, including after strong data on business activity in the eurozone services sectors in April, as well as a slowdown in eurozone industrial deflation. Data published on Tuesday morning showed an increase in imports (+0.3% mom) and exports (+0.9% mom) of Germany in March, while the country's production orders decreased by 0.4% mom.
Trading in Asia in the morning is mostly positive. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 1.5% after a long weekend. The Australian ASX 200 is growing by 1.5% against the background of the Reserve Bank of Australia maintaining the interest rate at today's meeting at 4.35%. Chinese indices change in different directions, within 0.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down 0.5%, correcting from another peak since September 2023.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil are changing by less than 0.5% in the morning after rising by about 0.5% the day before, when quotes were able to retreat from the area of lows since March. Prices are trying to hold the medium-term supports of $83 and $78.50, respectively (the average Bollinger bands of the weekly charts) against the background of a decrease in the likelihood of an early truce between Israel and Hamas, as well as an improvement in sentiment on global stock markets. Market optimism, however, remains fragile. Tuesday will be marked by the release of the monthly report of the US Department of Energy.
The indices of the Moscow Stock Exchange and RTS did not show the same dynamics again the day before. The ruble indicator decreased by 0.2%, experiencing uncertainty at the resistance of 3455 points, but retreated from the nearest support of 3420 points, which has the lower Bollinger band of the daily chart. The dollar RTS added about 0.1%, rising to a new high of 1,191 points this year due to the strengthening of the ruble. The next resistance for the RTS is located at 1200 points.
The ruble in the morning on the Moscow Exchange varies within 0.5% against the dollar, euro and Chinese yuan, being located at 91.35 rubles, 98.40 rubles and 12.63 rubles, respectively. The ruble strengthened the day before to another maximum since March against the dollar (90.83 rubles) and remains at the April peaks of 97.52 rubles and 12.49 rubles against the euro and yuan.
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market will feel the pressure of the LUKOIL dividend gap (about 6.2%), which has the maximum share in the Mosbirzhi index (15.6%) and can maintain stability in the RTS index due to the calm environment in foreign exchange trading. On the whole, Tuesday is not expected to be an eventful day, and new macroeconomic signals will be expected abroad near important medium-term resistances in the US and European indices. Activity in the Russian Federation in the next two sessions may be reduced, including before the additional day off on May 9. In general, investors continue to wait for dividend announcements, many of which are due to take place in the oil sector.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital, https://veles-capital.ru/analytics /
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