The external background on Wednesday morning can be called moderately negative. Oil prices remain prone to decline after falling the day before, and sentiment on global stock markets began to deteriorate.
Trading on the US stock exchanges yesterday ended with a predominant growth of the three main indices within 0.2%. The indicators, however, retreated from the peaks of the session, and the high-tech Nasdaq completely lost about 0.1% after the representative of the Federal Reserve Kashkari gave a rather hawkish signal and did not rule out an increase in the interest rate in the country and its long-term preservation at a high level. Against this background, the S&P 500 indicator retreated from the short-term resistance area of 5230 points.
Futures for the S&P 500 index hardly change positions in the morning. In the middle of the week, the market will continue to focus mainly on signals from Fed representatives, and it will not be easy to continue growth at historical peaks without positive news.
Trading in Europe on the eve ended with an increase in the Euro Stoxx 50 index by 1.1%, which overcame the psychologically important 5,000 point mark on the background of encouraging macroeconomic data and quarterly reports. Wednesday's statistics showed a decrease in German industrial production in March by 0.4% mom after its growth of 1.7% a month earlier, which, however, turned out to be better than forecasts of a 0.6% reduction.
Trading in Asia in the morning is mostly negative. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 1.5% as part of the correction. The Australian ASX 200 gained 0.1%. Chinese indices are declining within 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is falling by about 0.5%, continuing to remove overbought and correction from the peak since September 2023.
The nearest futures for Brent and WTI crude oil are declining by about 0.5% in the morning after falling within 1% the day before, when quotes updated the next lows since March of $82.43 and $77.58, respectively. Prices confirm the risks of developing a downward movement in the face of the loss of recent bullish drivers, which may lead Brent quotes to the area of $ 75 (the lower Bollinger band of the weekly chart). At the same time, the American Petroleum Institute reported an increase in reserves of "black gold" in the country last week by 509 thousand barrels against expectations of a reduction of 1.43 million barrels in today's report by the US Department of Energy.
The Moscow Stock Exchange and RTS indices fell by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, the day before. The ruble indicator held the support of 3420 points, but during the session it fell to the area of 3400 points, stabilization below which may portend a correction closer to 3345 points. The dollar RTS has held above 1,170 points and generally feels more confident due to the dynamics of the ruble.
In the morning, the ruble on the Moscow Exchange mostly weakens within 0.5% against the dollar, euro and Chinese yuan, settling at 91.60 rubles, 98.75 rubles and 12.75 rubles, respectively. The ruble is retreating from recent peaks of 90.83 rubles, 97.48 rubles and 12.49 rubles as part of the correction.
At the beginning of the trading day, the Russian stock market may not show significant changes in the ruble segment and feel downward pressure on the RTS index due to a weaker ruble. The pre-holiday day in the Russian Federation is expected to be quite calm for events, of which it can only be noted that Akron shareholders discussed dividends for 2023 with a yield of 2.45%. The day before, LUKOIL showed a dividend gap almost half the proposed yield of 6.2%, and the shares of Bank St. Petersburg jumped by almost 5% and are close to closing the gap formed after the dividend cutoff. Such dynamics of dividend stocks indicates the continued faith of investors in issuers and expectations of new payments, which is favorable for general sentiment.
Elena Kozhukhova, analyst at IC VELES Capital, https://veles-capital.ru/analytics /
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