GDP growth is expected to reach 2.8% in 2024. The nominal volume of GDP will exceed 191 trillion rubles, which is 11.5 trillion rubles more than expected in September 2023. The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov presented the scenario conditions and the main parameters of the forecast of socio-economic development for 3 years, the Cabinet of Ministers reports.
The growth factor is domestic consumer and investment demand. Investment growth in 2024 will be 2.3%, despite the record high base of last year – 9.8%.
High consumer activity will continue. Growth is expected: retail trade in real terms by 7.7%, paid services – by 5.1%.
In 2024, the population's income growth will amount to 5.3% in real terms. Salaries will increase by 6.5% in real terms. Unemployment will not exceed 3%.
Inflation will slow down to 5.1% by the end of 2024 from 7.4% by the end of 2023.
The average annual exchange rate of the ruble will be 94.7 rubles per dollar.
In 2025-2027, the economy will continue to grow steadily at the level of 2.3–2.4%: investment growth is expected to average 3% per year. An increase in consumer activity is projected at an average of 3.7% per year. Real incomes of the population will grow by an average of 3.1%.
Inflation in 2025 will reach the Bank of Russia's target level of 4%.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin instructed the Ministry of Finance and departments, based on the forecast and strategic documents, to form budget parameters for the next 3 years, taking into account the financing of programs and projects designated by the head of state.
