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Inflation can reach 3.8-4.2% year end

The inflation in Russia is assumed to come to 3.8-4.2% with respect to the CB decision on the key rate and stoppage in foreign currency purchase within the budget rule. The annual inflation in IH 2019 is expected to reach 5-5.5%, the Bank of Russia informed.

At the CB BOD sitting the key rate was raised up to 7.50% ann.

The growth of consumer prices is assumed to be slowed down to 4% in IIH 2019. The annual inflation can return to 4% in IH 2020 when the impact of the weakening of the ruble rate and VAT growth should expire.

The downtrend in the ruble rate is explained by the capital outflow provoked by the outside pressure. Still the payment balance is rather high due to the steady prices on the exported products.

In future the volatility on the markets can be supported by the geopolitical factors.

In CB's view, the risks are moderate.

"AK&M", 14:19, 14.09.2018 1251 AKM,BNK


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